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MBRís  A Five Year Outlook for China's Aluminium Industry

MBRís A Five Year Outlook for China's Aluminium Industry

This study from Metal Bulletin Research (MBR), The Future for China's Aluminium Industry, seeks to examine the primary aluminium industry from a "first principles" perspective, looking at both demand and supply to assess the influences on each, and the likely outcomes for both.

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This study from Metal Bulletin Research (MBR), The Future for China's Aluminium Industry, seeks to examine the primary aluminium industry from a "first principles" perspective, looking at both demand and supply to assess the influences on each, and the likely outcomes for both.

Why should you buy this study?

China's aluminium industry has grown at incredible rates the last ten years. But now many experts are predicting that China will gradually become a net importer of the metal. Some commentators have predicted shortages as high as 5 million tonnes by 2015.

MBR tests these predictions. In this ground-breaking forecast study, you will learn what is really going on inside the industry, including many items of information never made public before.

Who will benefit from purchasing this study?

This study is aimed at anybody who follows the primary aluminium industry in the world today including:

  • Traders;
  • Producers;
  • Competitors;
  • Analysts.

It seems that everybody has an opinion about what is likely to unfold in China's aluminium industry in the years ahead.

Some analysts have predicted that China will become a net importer of millions of tonnes of primary metal by the year 2015. Some producers have made similar predictions.

Rather than trying to dissect or analyze these forecasts, MBR have gone back to first principles, looking at the empirical evidence. Using the recent history of the industry as a base, we have taken the actual outcomes for 2010, despite it being a year of highs and lows. That gives us a basis on which to start an analysis of the future. To that base, we have added information regarding the likely consumption patterns for the future, and sought to discover all new smelter projects that are currently being built or planned.

This study is based on extensive research by our team of analysts, as well as interviews with leading industry figures. The team conducting this research, and preparing this study, is comprised of industry veterans, chemical engineers, analysts, economists and researchers who together have decades of experience.

Key questions addressed in this study include:

  • Why do different agencies in China report different statistics?
  • How is the Chinese aluminium industry responding to the challenges of high electricity costs?
  • Energy intensity restrictions – in 2010 they were a brake on production, but what will happen in 2011 and beyond?

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