Global Steel Markets
The prices of coking coal, iron ore, energy and scrap have rocketed to unprecedented highs culminating in
steel prices breaking the $1,000/tonne barrier. Is the industry still poised for sustained profitability, strengthened by industrial consolidation, or is a turning point in the current super-cycle to be expected led by over-capacity and the subsequent fall in prices?
Includes 400 pages, 450 tables and charts and a 5,000 line interactive Excel consumption forecast model by product and region, access to analysts and spreadsheets.
Key questions answered in this report:
- How long will the steel and raw material price boom continue for? When, if at all, can we expect a severe market down-turn?
- Where are prices for iron ore, scrap, coking coal, coke and freight heading?
- Is the industry poised for sustained profitability or can we expect a turning point in the current super-cycle resulting from over-capacity and leading to dramatic falls in steel prices?
- Will there be an impending steel crisis in China's domestic market?
- To what degree will the global credit crunch affect global steel consumption?
- What are the trends for regional consumption by production route, consumption per capita and steel intensity forecasts for the medium term period to 2012, and a longer term outlook to 2020?
- Which steel end-user sectors are growing and which are declining?
- Raw materials and energy prices have followed steel prices in their upward climb. The former due to shortages in the mines and the transport chain serving them, the latter due to high oil prices and eventually to environmental penalties associated with combating climate change. Are these temporary phenomena or will they be part of the steel landscape for future years?
- How and why will climate change and emissions policies have a fundamental impact on steel production costs, competitiveness and the location of steelmaking?
- How are new steel technologies and management processes responding to the new economics of raw materials and climate change.
- Where should new steel capacity be built and for which products?
- What are the problems facing Japan, S Korea and Taiwan, and why do their steel industries face decline?
- What strategies are the traditional industries of North America and Europe adopting to face new and emerging threats and challenges?
Published August 2008
Volume 1: Global Steel Industry
The prospects for key steel consuming sectors
• Steel usage trends
• Global business environment
• The growth and stagnant sectors from a steel perspective
Detailed analysis, forecasts and statistics of steel use by the major user industries worldwide for: Construction; Automotive; Shipbuilding; Railway equipment; Domestic appliances; Packaging; Pipelines and OCTG; Plant and machinery
Steel product demand and supply trends by major world regions
• Regional analysis and forecasting of economic, production and consumption forecasts for each major steel product
• Strengths and weaknesses of each region
• Forecasting methodology
• Key consumer sector trends by region
• Trends in steel production, consumption and trade out to 2020, and the regional product mix
• Steel company consolidation trends, capacity data, new investment and strategy analysis for the major steel companies in each region
• Greenfield/brownfield capacity additions in each region
Detailed historical and forecast statistical tables and analysis of production, trade and consumption for 2008-2020:
• by major country/region
• by each steel product including slabs, billets, plate, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, plate, galvanised, tinplate, heavy sections/rails, reinforcement bar and products, other long products
Price analysis, forecasts and strategy implications
• Detailed analysis and forecasts of steel product prices
• Relationship between prices and costs
• Margin analysis
• Scenario analysis and strategy conclusions
Volume 2: Global Steel Raw Materials Supply
Crude steel production and raw materials demand analysis
• Global production by process route
• Regional costs and comparative advantage analysis in steelmaking affecting location and choice of process route
• The impact of climate change and emissions control on future steelmaking
• Location of steelmaking and the trade in semis
Steel raw materials and the supply chain
• Supply and demand analysis and forecasts for ferrous scrap, iron ore; metallics (scrap, DRI/HBI, pig iron); coke and
coking coal markets
The ferrous scrap market
• Types of scrap collection and distribution, how the price is fixed
• Scrap generation by region
• The elasticity of scrap supply with respect to price
• Trends in scrap trade
• Legislative/recycling issues
DRI/HBI and pig iron
• The growth of DRI and pig iron
• Supply and demand analysis of production, consumption and trade and price trends
• Technical and cost developments
Iron ore supply
• How prices are fixed and future contract/spot trends
• Trends in supplying countries, the main companies and their strategies
• Concentration and market dominance, profits in ore and steel
• Trends in the use of pellets, lump and sinter - the factors affecting choice
• The politics of the iron ore business and the future role of China
The supply of coal and coke
• Blast furnace practices and future coal and coke requirements
• Coke production and trade – future trends
• The main suppliers of metallurgical coal and their strategies
• Price setting – differentials between steam and metallurgical coal
• The method of transportation
• Trends in freight rates and their impact on steel trade
• Futures market and price trends in bulk freight rates
• The implications for steel makers
• Environmental impact reduction: greenhouse gas emissions
by process route and alternatives
• Cost reduction measures: the scope for steel production performance improvement in existing plants
• Cost reduction: the introduction of new steel technologies
Relative cost of different steelmaking routes
• Cost modelling utilising differing assumptions on process routes
• Relating analysis to actual regional differences in steelmaking costs
• The impact of technology
• Impact on future costs, given possible and likely changes in raw material, energy and transport costs
Forecast supply, demand balances and price analysis
• Trade and production by region – current patterns
• The issue of splitting steelmaking from rolling, and the future trade in semis
• The impact of changes in input and transport costs on steel production locations
• The demand and price dynamics for steel raw materials
• Key price and margin analysis and forecasts